Baseball: The First 30 Games
by Tony Lee

The rush of Opening Day is long gone and the pennant races have yet to heat up. Players, coaches, executives and fans refuse to get too worked up over anything for fear of burnout. With nearly five months of baseball left they choose to bide their time before making any definitive statements about their club.

Those struggling to get going reach the 30-game mark and say, “Ah, it’s still early. We’ll turn it around.”

Those playing well take the high road, uttering words such as, “Things are going great right now, but we have a long way to go before we can be comfortable.”

It’s true that so much can happen over the remaining 132 games, but just once it would be refreshing to hear a little panic, or a small dose of cockiness.

Both would be warranted. Since MLB adopted the six-division wild card format, just two of 28 pennant winners had a losing record after 30 games. Both of those teams (the 2005 Astros and 2007 Rockies) were wild-card winners who were swept in the World Series. 

So without further ado, here are our 30 thoughts on 30 teams through 30 games.

AL East
Baltimore - As predicted in these pages by this writer just two issues ago, the Orioles will have three starters make at least 10 starts and finish with ERAs over 6.00. Corpses such as Adam Eaton and Mark Hendrickson will help make that prediction ring true. Stick a fork in ‘em: The O’s are done.
Boston – At this time last year Tim Wakefield was a 41-year-old with an ERA that was about to soar over 5.00 and Jason Bay was playing before 29 fans each night in baseball purgatory. Wakefield looks like a Cy Young candidate and Bay is the American League MVP at this point.
New York Yankees – It’s easy to focus on injuries, a dismal bullpen and an underperforming rotation, but the Bronx Bombers have destroyed themselves in clutch situations all year, a scenario that helped them recently finish a home-stand without a lead for 41 straight innings. But Captain Clutch himself, A-Rod, has returned with a bang; and it’s become an annual rite for the Yankees to stink up the joint in the first 30 games. So writing them off would be unwise.
Tampa Bay - After a slow start the defending AL champs have little reason to doubt themselves, but keep an eye on the back end of the rotation. Without Edwin Jackson there will be nights that tax the bullpen, which has shown itself to be shaky at times.
Toronto – Logic would dictate that a team hitting .290 and scoring nearly 20 more runs than any other team in baseball should stick around for a bit. Logic is a whore. Unless Roy Halladay makes 84 starts (I wouldn’t put it past him), the Jays’ staying power is sapped.

AL Central
Chicago - This team thrived in ‘08 by hitting a crap-load of home runs and pitching just well enough to get by. Neither is happening in ‘09. The Ozzie Guillen tantrum is imminent.
Cleveland - Why was everyone so hyped on this team in the preseason? In Grady Sizemore and Victor Martinez and Cliff Lee there are some nice parts, but mediocrity reigns elsewhere. Except in the bullpen, where they flat-out suck.
Detroit – Shedding Sheffield, trading for the aforementioned Jackson and solidifying their defense with Adam Everett and Brandon Inge on the left side of the infield have made the Tigers a legit contender in the division. I just wish they’d let Jim Leyland have his smoke breaks in the dugout.
Kansas City - The talk will be about Zack Greinke until there is a reason not to discuss him, but the Royals have quietly put quality players at every spot.  They won’t wow you - except
every fifth day when Greinke pitches - but their first 30 games (18-12) are no fluke.
Minnesota - In Ron Gardenhire we trust. 
 
AL West
Los Angeles – The rest of the division may have lost its chance to bury this team, which will only get better as the season progresses.  Still, this is an 88-win team at best.
Oakland – Another buzz-worthy squad in the spring, the A’s have some nice arms through a few Billy Beane trades, but their offense has been so atrocious it’s hard to see any major push in the division.
Seattle – My sister lives in Seattle and is about to have her first child. That’s much more exciting than the Mariners will be once August rolls around.
Texas - The best offense in baseball if Josh Hamilton (strained rib cage muscle) can return to form after a DL stint. Yet the upgrade at defense with Elvis Andrus at shortstop will help them stick around.

NL East
Atlanta – Like my Toyota, there’s little power and virtually no speed. 
Florida – Fantasy players out there may want to keep an eye on setup man Leo Nunez, or stash him away somewhere. Matt Lindstrom is a ticking time bomb in the closer’s role.
New York Mets – Pedro! Pedro! Pedro!
Philadelphia – Cole Hamels and Brad Lidge were the two biggest factors in the 2008 World Series title. Between injuries and ineffectiveness they could be the primary causes for a collapse in ’09.
Washington – The Nationals were eliminated from the 2009 race in 2008.

NL Central
Chicago – So little went right in the first 30 games for the Cubbies, yet they are still above .500.  That’s trouble for the rest of the league.
Cincinnati – Bronson Arroyo’s line May 1 at Pittsburgh: 8 innings, 4 hits, 0 runs.  Five days later vs. Milwaukee: 1 inning, 7 hits, 9 runs. A little consistency will help this team loaded with young talent contend with the Cubs and Cards.
Brewers – In Gallardo we trust. In Trevor Hoffman we don’t.
Houston – Safe to say Tejada is off the sauce?
Pittsburgh – For the first time in years the Bucs have a few young arms to be excited about.  They still hit for shit, however.
St. Louis – Albert Pujols will win the Triple Crown this year. All anyone will talk about is whether or not he is on steroids. That’s the shame of it all – we can no longer simply be amazed without asking the question.

NL West
Arizona – Bob Melvin lost his job in part because he constantly tinkered with his lineup, which produced a .226 average through 30 games. Here’s one suggestion: Put Justin Upton in the 3-hole. Keep him there until October. Repeat for the next 10 years.
Colorado – Since going 21-1 at the end of the 2007 season and streaking into the playoffs, the Rockies are 85-109 and appear headed to their eighth losing season in nine years. It’s safe to say ’07 was a fluke.
Los Angeles – Without Manny the Dodgers are still the best team in the division. When he returns from suspension July 3 they will still be in first. Let’s just hope he’s not pregnant. Those fertility drugs pack a punch.
San Diego – If you get a chance to watch starter Chris Young throw to catcher Nick Hundley, it’s a laugh a minute. Young can’t hold runners, takes forever to get to the plate and Hundley is a disaster trying to throw anyone out. I stole second on them once from my couch.
San Francisco – Timing has been awful in San Fran. A few years after Barry Bonds was sending moon shots into the water the Giants have assembled one of the most intriguing – and successful – starting rotations in baseball. Yet without Mr. Potato Head they have less power at the plate than anyone in baseball.

Tony Lee is a reporter with the Metro Boston newspaper. He was born and raised in Burlington, Vermont, and now resides in Roslindale with his wife, Andi, and a dog named Pete.